Apple Inc. (nasd:AAPL)- Apple reports Q1 2010 results after the bell today, January 25th.
Below are my expected numbers:
Tailwinds Q1 2010:
1) Improving economic environment and consumer spending.
2) New iMacs released in October.
3) iPhone expansion into China, Korea, and additional carriers in current markets.
4) iPhone 3GS channel fill due to supply constraints in Q4.
5) Strengthening international demand for Macs, iPhones, and iPods.
6) iPhone “halo effect” benefiting Mac demand.
7) USD weakening should lift ASPs from sales abroad.
8) iPod sales mix shifting towards touch models should lift iPod ASP.
Headwinds Q1 2010:
1) Unavailability of higher priced iMac models in December.
2) GM pressure for shipping costs from iMac refresh.
3) Higher provision for warranty expense stemming from defective 27’ iMac units.
4) iPod product life cycle maturing, potential market nearing saturation, and cannibalization of iPhone/iPod touch demand.
5) Competition from low-price notebooks and netbooks resulting in MacBooks appearing to be much more expensive.
On balance, tailwinds were much more stronger than headwinds that Apple faced in Q1 2010. Thus, Apple should report an extremely strong quarter.
Disclosure: Long AAPL
Amazing job Turley -- you really nailed it!
ReplyDeleteYour unit estimates were very close. I think the international mix was surprising. I had hoped to see 50%. 58% actual has to be a good sign of things to come for Apple.
ReplyDeleteAny comments on the current price 205$ for APPLE? I also take LONG view, but current price seems to be too high? what do u think?
ReplyDeleteThanks for the insight!
ReplyDeletevery detail breakdown.. but its a pity that you haven't update your blog. nevertheless, i will come in very often to check it out!
ReplyDeletecheers..
I have to agree with the previous poster. Are you still following AAPL?
ReplyDeleteWould love to see your actual numbers and what growth you've seen since?
ReplyDelete