Financial Alchemist

I appreciate your thoughts and blog. Thanks for sh...

2012-08-27T08:27:02.283-05:00

I appreciate your thoughts and blog. Thanks for sharing. You should write more often ;)

The antenna issue was covered with giving away fre...

2010-10-30T15:59:53.303-05:00

The antenna issue was covered with giving away free cases wouldn't be included in warranty expense n

Any idea why Q4 cost of claims were so high, possi...

2010-10-30T15:54:09.277-05:00

Any idea why Q4 cost of claims were so high, possibly the antennae fix/refund? Hopefully not IPad. I would assume AAPL is looking to carry a higher reserve going forward and that they expect a big number next quarter also.

Superb work as always Turley! This is real insight...

2010-10-29T08:47:34.022-05:00

Superb work as always Turley! This is real insight that makes a significant impact to the body of knowledge.

Did we see similar trends during the introductions of other devices? Or, does the sheer scale and number of new products help differentiate what we are seeing today?

Turley, Excellent find. But I think we cant be su...

2010-10-28T23:50:13.744-05:00

Turley,

Excellent find. But I think we cant be sure if the charges to the reserve will bounce back to normal levels. The last qtr is ~85% more than the previous qtr which itself was the highest charge in the last 7 qtrs. So it could be the beginning of a trend. Not sure if it has got to do with the iphone4 teething issues or the ipad.

I expect we will. I don't think the cost of cl...

2010-10-28T13:42:14.831-05:00

I expect we will. I don't think the cost of claims, (charges to the reserve) will catch up, thus Apple will have more that sufficient reserves allowing them to book lower warranty expense to earnings in the periods ahead.

Nice catch! I posted: http://www.asymco.com/2010/...

2010-10-28T13:39:18.129-05:00

Nice catch!
I posted: http://www.asymco.com/2010/10/28/turley-muller-warranty-expense-crimps-apples-margins-in-4q10/

I wonder what the chances are that we might see a surprise on the upside in margins this Q.

Is this blog closed now? If not it could be nice ...

2010-08-06T04:06:07.745-05:00

Is this blog closed now?

If not it could be nice if you did a similar research on Eli Lilly.

That company is also a member of the list Dividend Aristocrats but have had the same stock history that Walgreen.

BR
Sune the Sweed

Would love to see your actual numbers and what gro...

2010-07-28T11:09:38.281-05:00

Would love to see your actual numbers and what growth you've seen since?

I have to agree with the previous poster. Are you...

2010-06-28T22:28:36.200-05:00

I have to agree with the previous poster. Are you still following AAPL?

very detail breakdown.. but its a pity that you ha...

2010-05-16T23:08:55.962-05:00

very detail breakdown.. but its a pity that you haven't update your blog. nevertheless, i will come in very often to check it out!
cheers..

Whenever i see the post like your's i feel tha...

2010-05-06T12:12:15.002-05:00

Whenever i see the post like your's i feel that there are still helpful people who share information for the help of others, it must be helpful for other's. thanx and good job.

Finance Dissertation Proposal

Excellent article, this blog is great always relev...

2010-03-15T01:10:52.956-06:00

Excellent article, this blog is great always relevant postings. Congratulations! I'm from Brazil and also do operations on the financeiro

Thanks for the insight!

2010-02-05T02:03:00.056-06:00

Thanks for the insight!

Any comments on the current price 205$ for APPLE? ...

2010-01-27T03:49:32.373-06:00

Any comments on the current price 205$ for APPLE? I also take LONG view, but current price seems to be too high? what do u think?

Your unit estimates were very close. I think the i...

2010-01-26T07:24:44.762-06:00

Your unit estimates were very close. I think the international mix was surprising. I had hoped to see 50%. 58% actual has to be a good sign of things to come for Apple.

Amazing job Turley -- you really nailed it!

2010-01-25T22:45:39.770-06:00

Amazing job Turley -- you really nailed it!

Thanks for sharing your point of view and a long d...

2010-01-06T08:40:53.655-06:00

Thanks for sharing your point of view and a long details analysis about Apple. After reading your analysis it gives me more info and clearer pic on the issue.

Refanel, Those numbers aren't in the Q's,...

2009-12-12T02:00:19.014-06:00

Refanel,

Those numbers aren't in the Q's, but are in the quarterly press releases. If you go to Apple's IR site, there is archive all press releases and accompanying tables.

Turley, could you kindly indicate where did you ge...

2009-12-12T01:37:15.085-06:00

Turley, could you kindly indicate where did you get the following DR breakdown from? I couldn't find them on any of the Ks/Qs:

iPhone & ATV = 3518
AppleCare = 599
other = 736

The technical challenge of getting an iphone to wo...

2009-11-25T05:28:30.026-06:00

The technical challenge of getting an iphone to work on the Verizon network are easy; I do foresee some customer confusion with the lack of seamless data/voice transitions. Still, i believe apple has some tricks up its sleeves

Minor point on the Verizon comments: CDMA is also...

2009-11-25T02:13:48.070-06:00

Minor point on the Verizon comments:

CDMA is also used in Asia and South America. There are over 250,000,000 CDMA users in Asia and about 40,000,000 in South America. It's also used here in the US by Sprint.

CDMA's numbers are here.

@ anonymous (#5) I mentioned in the text that the...

2009-11-25T00:51:00.501-06:00

@ anonymous (#5)

I mentioned in the text that the pricing doesn't include VAT, but you are exactly correct. It can range from 15-25% in Europe, and CAN and AUS can range 5-10%.

As I mentioned, my point was to illustrate the change resulting from the exchange rate fluctuation and not necessarily the absolute USD difference.

Thanks for commenting.

There are so many technical questions due to Veriz...

2009-11-24T22:05:47.838-06:00

There are so many technical questions due to Verizon's unique, proprietary, non-standard network, you don't even have to do the financial argument to see the picture is grim for a Verizon iPhone.

Apple would have to make a special Verizon-specific iPhone model, doubling their SKU's for just 1 carrier, while the other 100+ carriers all use the current, standardized iPhone model. And they have to explain to users why you can't perform all of the actions in the iPhone training and marketing materials on your Verizon iPhone because you can't use data and voice simultaneously on Verizon like you can on every current iPhone carrier, why there's no SIM slot or card, why you can't use your Verizon iPhone outside the US, and so on. On the used iPhone market, Verizon iPhones would be like a trap you could accidentally fall into. And there will be bugs that are specific to the Verizon model because it would have a different software stack for the cell radio. The more you think about it, the more complex it gets and the less likely it seems that Apple will make a Verizon iPhone.

Verizon also has around 50 million users who have all declined to purchase 3 iPhone models over 3 years, even though their contracts with Verizon must have been up at some point during that time. These are not the most enthusiastic iPhone users. And Droid is Verizon's very first phone with a desktop-class Web browser like iPhone ... nobody knows if Verizon's 3G network can handle the iPhone kind of data traffic, and if it can't, how enthusiastic will Verizon be to build out their 3G further when they are building 4G right now?

Another thing that is not mentioned is that the $30 AT&T iPhone data plan is truly unlimited, while Verizon's $30 "unlimited" data plan is capped at 5GB and then a meter starts above that, causing the Verizon bill to be much more expensive. Verizon will very likely not be able to steal wholesale iPhone users from AT&T because the user will need all-new hardware, lose features they're used to, and their phone bill would go way up in many cases. For example, I use about 8-10GB of data per month with my AT&T iPhone ... on Verizon I would pay more than double the price for that data per month. When you consider the cost of the data plan is often cited as the main reason that someone who wants an iPhone doesn't get one, the Verizon iPhone has a few things against it from a sales point of view.

Both Apple and Verizon see themselves as closest to the customer, there would be tension as to who is making the final decisions. Or at least there would be tension inside Verizon because Apple isn't going to give them anything in that regard. For example, Verizon's app store is Java-based, and I believe iPhone is the only smartphone without Java.

So Verizon and iPhone are not really a match made in heaven. I'm skeptical we will ever see it.

The technical challenge of getting an iphone to wo...

2009-11-24T19:06:19.865-06:00

The technical challenge of getting an iphone to work on the Verizon network are easy; I do foresee some customer confusion with the lack of seamless data/voice transitions.

I thought the price drop was an increased subsidy from AT&T in return for giving up the recurring monthly revenue for subs?