tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2991101600248617596.post7162657596174852227..comments2023-11-14T02:15:06.159-06:00Comments on Financial Alchemist: My Comments on Bloomberg TV Interview with Apple AnalystTurley Mullerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01407515956935491747noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2991101600248617596.post-12687886193822856852010-01-06T08:40:53.655-06:002010-01-06T08:40:53.655-06:00Thanks for sharing your point of view and a long d...Thanks for sharing your point of view and a long details analysis about Apple. After reading your analysis it gives me more info and clearer pic on the issue.Horlichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05713116411954827629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2991101600248617596.post-79564911022198820082009-11-25T05:28:30.026-06:002009-11-25T05:28:30.026-06:00The technical challenge of getting an iphone to wo...The technical challenge of getting an iphone to work on the Verizon network are easy; I do foresee some customer confusion with the lack of seamless data/voice transitions. Still, i believe <a href="http://www.bindapple.com" rel="nofollow" rel="nofollow">apple</a> has some tricks up its sleevesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2991101600248617596.post-27634687195570814082009-11-25T02:13:48.070-06:002009-11-25T02:13:48.070-06:00Minor point on the Verizon comments:
CDMA is also...Minor point on the Verizon comments:<br /><br />CDMA is also used in Asia and South America. There are over 250,000,000 CDMA users in Asia and about 40,000,000 in South America. It's also used here in the US by Sprint.<br /><br />CDMA's numbers are <a href="http://www.cdg.org/worldwide/" rel="nofollow" rel="nofollow">here</a>.Peternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2991101600248617596.post-80553644928063096272009-11-24T22:05:47.838-06:002009-11-24T22:05:47.838-06:00There are so many technical questions due to Veriz...There are so many technical questions due to Verizon's unique, proprietary, non-standard network, you don't even have to do the financial argument to see the picture is grim for a Verizon iPhone.<br /><br />Apple would have to make a special Verizon-specific iPhone model, doubling their SKU's for just 1 carrier, while the other 100+ carriers all use the current, standardized iPhone model. And they have to explain to users why you can't perform all of the actions in the iPhone training and marketing materials on your Verizon iPhone because you can't use data and voice simultaneously on Verizon like you can on every current iPhone carrier, why there's no SIM slot or card, why you can't use your Verizon iPhone outside the US, and so on. On the used iPhone market, Verizon iPhones would be like a trap you could accidentally fall into. And there will be bugs that are specific to the Verizon model because it would have a different software stack for the cell radio. The more you think about it, the more complex it gets and the less likely it seems that Apple will make a Verizon iPhone.<br /><br />Verizon also has around 50 million users who have all declined to purchase 3 iPhone models over 3 years, even though their contracts with Verizon must have been up at some point during that time. These are not the most enthusiastic iPhone users. And Droid is Verizon's very first phone with a desktop-class Web browser like iPhone ... nobody knows if Verizon's 3G network can handle the iPhone kind of data traffic, and if it can't, how enthusiastic will Verizon be to build out their 3G further when they are building 4G right now?<br /><br />Another thing that is not mentioned is that the $30 AT&T iPhone data plan is truly unlimited, while Verizon's $30 "unlimited" data plan is capped at 5GB and then a meter starts above that, causing the Verizon bill to be much more expensive. Verizon will very likely not be able to steal wholesale iPhone users from AT&T because the user will need all-new hardware, lose features they're used to, and their phone bill would go way up in many cases. For example, I use about 8-10GB of data per month with my AT&T iPhone ... on Verizon I would pay more than double the price for that data per month. When you consider the cost of the data plan is often cited as the main reason that someone who wants an iPhone doesn't get one, the Verizon iPhone has a few things against it from a sales point of view.<br /><br />Both Apple and Verizon see themselves as closest to the customer, there would be tension as to who is making the final decisions. Or at least there would be tension inside Verizon because Apple isn't going to give them anything in that regard. For example, Verizon's app store is Java-based, and I believe iPhone is the only smartphone without Java.<br /><br />So Verizon and iPhone are not really a match made in heaven. I'm skeptical we will ever see it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2991101600248617596.post-88992764519597163232009-11-24T19:06:19.865-06:002009-11-24T19:06:19.865-06:00The technical challenge of getting an iphone to wo...The technical challenge of getting an iphone to work on the Verizon network are easy; I do foresee some customer confusion with the lack of seamless data/voice transitions.<br /><br />I thought the price drop was an increased subsidy from AT&T in return for giving up the recurring monthly revenue for subs?charlienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2991101600248617596.post-5904036709153515482009-11-24T18:00:42.217-06:002009-11-24T18:00:42.217-06:00The more I look at it the more I'm convinced t...The more I look at it the more I'm convinced that Apple hasn't dropped the price of the iPhone at all since July 2008 (more than a year ago). The only thing that happened was AT&T increasing the subsidy from $300 to $400, probably in exchange for an extension on the exclusivity agreement. This explains why there were no price drops in other major markets like the UK and Germany this June, and why Apple's wholesale ASP went up by $100.abugidanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2991101600248617596.post-29259095016895340372009-11-24T15:39:08.239-06:002009-11-24T15:39:08.239-06:00Great cross-examination. When I first saw his def...Great cross-examination. When I first saw his defense of the assertion that iPhone is going to Verizon in mid 2010, I also smelled a rat. The credibility killer for me was his reference to a lower subsidy which contradicted Tim Cook's concall comments. You're the first to bring this up in a public forum and I appreciate that.<br /><br />I would add that there are other challenges in adapting the iPhone to the Verizon network which he seems to gloss over. As pointed out in the latest ads from Apple, the iPhone has functionality that depends deeply on the GSM family of protocols. Verizon's use of incompatible CDMA networks makes it a unique customer for Apple--one which may not deserve a unique product and possible platform fragmentation.<br /><br />Having said that, I don't discount the possibility of a Verizon iPhone, but I would say that if/when exclusivity ends, the first US operator to take it will be T-Mobile.<br /><br /><br /><br />-AsymmetricAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2991101600248617596.post-84954339549295114772009-11-24T14:25:13.476-06:002009-11-24T14:25:13.476-06:00As usual, great analysis. Thank you.As usual, great analysis. Thank you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com